New and Old Biases in Subjective Probability Distributions: Do They Exist and are They Affected by Elicitation Procedures.

摘要

Past research indicates that people exhibit biases in assessing probability distributions on continuous variables. Three types of biases have been identified: too many true values falling into the extreme tails of the distributions, a displacement toward 50% for distributions assessed on percentages, and a general tendency to underestimate. This study explored the nature of these biases with particular emphasis on how they interact and how they are affected by the procedure used to elicit the distributions.