Los Factores Determinantes de la Demanda del Combustible Pesado en el Mercado de la Costa Oriental de los Estados Unidos, 1960-76 (The Determinants of the Demand for Residual Fuel Oil in the US East Coast Market, 1960-76).

摘要

This thesis is a study of the demand for a primary export product of Venezuela which is, as well, an important imported fuel with respect to the East Coast of the U.S. The objectives are: (a) to determine the most likely factors which bear upon the demand for fuel oil on the East Coast; (b) to pose and estimate an econometric model for the demand; and (c) to attempt short-range forecasts with the model. A prior economic study reveals the most likely variables which are then incorporated in two possible models which are thought to reflect the reality of the demand. The best specified models reveal that the essential factors of the demand are: (a) the lagged demand; (b) the price spread between fuel oil and coal; and (c) income per capita. Subsequent forecasts of the demand, given the same historical conditions which are the basis for the model, signal a reduction through 1980. This conclusion is important to Venezuela because of her position as a marginal supplier and certain inflexibility in her hydrocarbon export package. (Author)