Non-Cognitive Predictors and TSC 3B Market Expansion: Examining MOS Impacts

摘要

ARI has been investigating the potential that non-cognitive predictors could play in expanding the supply of highly-motivated AFQT test score category (TSC) 3B applicants. The initial research effort was known as the Expanded Enlistment Eligibility Metrics (EEEM) project, and preliminary results were encouraging: non-cognitive predictors have been tested that appear to identify a subset of TSC 3B applicants with predicted attrition (and possibly job performance) comparable to that of TSC 1-3A applicants. One concern regarding the implementation of these new predictors is whether an increase in TSC 3B applicants and a corresponding decrease in TSC 1-3A applicants would have repercussions for Army MOS TSC 1-3A goals. The objective of this effort is to estimate the effect of illustrative increases in the number of TSC 3B applicants on the allocation of applicants to their initial MOS training. The objectives were addressed with application of the Enlisted Personnel Allocation System (EPAS) model, designed to simulate the allocation / classification process.