Explorations in the Management of International Crises: Three Studies.

摘要

The three studies examine the avoidance and/or management of international crises. The first postulates a linkage between governmental foreign policy crises and the experience of stress by individual policy makers. Three points at which the development of stress within the individual are identified: (1) when policy makers internalize threat and experience negative affect; (2) when they try to cope with the threat; and (3) when stress responses influence decision making. Verbal and nonverbal indicators that could reveal the presence of stress are described. The second study suggests the possibility that certain types of actions by national governments may have properties that increase the probability that the recipients of those actions may exerpience crises. An initial test is performed to attempt to identify those attributes of behaviors that may trigger international crises. If such properties were established, they could be used as part of a short-term forecast of crises by third parties. The third study examines the feasibility of designing a computer simulation of the organizational system intended to support the involvement of the President in various types of national security problems. The organizational arrangement that may be most effective for dealing with one kind of problem may not be satisfactory for other types.