A Method for Adjusting Maintenance Forecasts to Account for Planned Aircraft Sortie Lengths.

摘要

This report describes the development of a technique for adjusting forecasted failure rates of developmental aircraft systems to account for the effect of the planned sortie lenths of the new aircraft. This technique utilizes maintenance data collected from the current inventory of comparison operational systems. After all other factors have been scrutinized, the failures resulting in maintenace actions are plotted against average sortie lengths. Then linear regression is used to smooth chance variation and the intercept is related to cyclic or warm-up failure rates while the slope is related to time induced failures. This technique is used to analyze failure rates for four aircraft types (three military and one civilian). Comparisons are made and it is recommended that this technique be used in forecasting failure rates of developmental military aircraft systems. (Author)