Sensitivity of Aircraft Attrition Estimates to Aiming Distribution Parameters of Antiaircraft Artillery.

摘要

This study was conducted to investigate the sensitivity of aircraft probability of kill (P sub k ) estimates to th parameters of a supplied antiaircraft artillery aiming angle distribution. A model was developed using basic physical relationships for the shell propagation and Monte Carlo sampling techniques to incorporate the random errors into the model. A shaped target was used and all random error sources were assumed to be bivariate normally distributed with zero means. Simulation runs were made holding all variables constant except for the aiming angle variances and response curves were constructed by plotting Pk versus aiming angle variance. Tests were also conducted to test the assumption that the shell distribution on the encounter plane was bivariate normal and that the effects of gravity drop on the shell could be neglected. The results from the study model were compared with similar results from model P001. The sensitivity of the Pk estimates was found to be a function of the magnitude of the Pk, the aiming angle variance, the sum of the ballistic error variances, and the aircraft vulnerable area. Response curve trends indicated slightly more sensitivity from the study model than from P001, however, it could not be concluded with certainty. (Author)