An Evaluation of Seasonality in the United States Air Force Medical Materiel Management System

摘要

Providing optimal logistical support to Air Force medical facilities is the main objective of the United States Air Force Medical Materiel Management System (MMMS). The inventory management and control procedures contained within this system have adequately met customer demands; however, the Surgeon General's Office feels that the same level of customer service could be achieved with a lower inventory investment. Previous studies on the MMMS have indicated that seasonal variation may be a significant contributing factor to the high cost of medical inventories. This research analyzed the existing computerized data to identify the extent of seasonality. The results of this analysis demonstrated that seasonality is significant, identifiable, and forecastable. Using the current forecasting method as the base, two additional techniques were tested for their ability to adjust for seasonality. Double Exponential Smoothing was demonstrated to be superior to the currently used Moving Average method. (Author)