A Partial Validation of Forecast Engagement Simulation Exercise Outcomes

摘要

The research evaluated the validity of board war gaming as a forecasting technique to determine behavioral benchmarks. Using data from the Combined Arms Test at Fort Carson, Colo., March 1978, and from the Fort Carson Forecasting Game, military judges were asked to distinguish between field exercise data and forecast data. Judgments were made on maps of exercise maneuver routes and tables summarizing data on casualties suffered and weapon systems inflicting casualties. The military judges were not able to distinguish between field and forecast maneuver routes, and they tended to classify forecast casualty data as field exercise casualty data. Board war gaming provides realistic process and product data that cannot be distinguished from field exercise data. Although further validation research needs to be conducted, board war game forecasting has great potential for use in developing performance benchmarks against which unit performance can be compared. (Author)