Cognitive Processes in Intelligence Analysis: A Descriptive Model and Review of the Literature

摘要

The descriptive model of cognitive processes in intelligence analysis presented in this report was developed as a part of a study entitled 'Investigation of Methodologies and Techniques for Intelligence Analysis.' The approach to constructing the model is based on the investigation of analytical processing in two types of single source analysis (SIGINT and IMINT), subsequently generalizing to multisource analysis. For the purposes of this investigation, intelligence analysis was defined as a spectrum of analytical and judgmental activities involved in the processing and production of intelligence, where particular individuals may devote more or less time to different aspects of such activities according to their individual roles in the intelligence cycle. The present paper contains a detailed review of selected aspects of current psychological literature, as well as the cognitive model which is based on that literature and on investigation of the IMINT and SIGINT production models. The cognitive model and the literature review focus on how information is processed, stored and retrieved from memory, evaluated and integrated to form intelligence. The model has general applicability to the full spectrum of intelligence processing activities.