A Basis for Forecasting the Arctic Sea Ice over a Few Months to Many Years

摘要

An 80-year set of sea-ice data has been collected and digitized, and work is in progress to verify this data set. Principal component analysis has been used to identify 'typical' mean sea level (MSL) pressure anomaly patterns and their temporal variations, and these have been correlated with long series of sea ice indices for various regions. Time series analysis of these sea ice and MSL pressure data has revealed characteristic time scales of variation, as well as significant long-term trends. In addition, studies have been made of various mechanisms which may have been responsible for the fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation and sea ice. (Author)