A Top Level Flow Chart for Surface Ship Combat Survivability Assessment

摘要

This report proposes a top level surface ship combat survivability assessment flow chart which is designed to (1) bound the overall problem into clearly delineated subsets, and (2) standardize measures of effectiveness and some terminology. The objective is to provide guidelines for comparing various survivability assessment models relative to each other and relative to the overall survivability problem. Major points are: (1) The overall assessment divides into three distinct phases, Cover and Deception, Weapon Destruction and Evasion, and Damage Tolerant Design/Damage Control and Repair, delineated by two unambiguous events, weapon launch and weapon impact. (2) The measures of effectiveness for each phase are all relative measures, not absolutes. (3) Specific analysis models must consider personnel as well as equipment; an unmanned ship is useless. (4) The proper MOE for Phase III is time-variation in mission readiness, not probability of kill. Using mission readiness puts emphasis on what the Fleet considers important and analysis results in terms meaningful to command levels. (5) Because of the many imponderables involved, combining the results from each phase into an overall conclusion is a human's job. No analytical model would have enough creditability to justify building it. (6) A standard set of command approved scenarios is needed which cover the full range of operations the Fleet considers meaningful in terms of combat survivability. (7) Analytical models are a useful and important engineering tool. However, they must be kept in proper perspective relative to the real world. Once a person starts taking a model literally he or she is lost.