The Effect of Inaccuracies in Meteorological Parameters on One-Dimensional Forecasts of Upper Ocean Thermal Structure.

摘要

A one-dimensional model has been used to investigate the effect of inaccuracies in meteorological parameters on forecasts of upper ocean thermal structure. Vertical eddy fluxes of heat, salinity, and momentum in the oceanic mixed layer are parameterized using the Level-2 turbulence closure model of Mellor and Yamada (1974). Surface eddy fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat, and momentum are related to the imposed meteorologiccal parameters through a bulk aerodynamic formulation. Surface fluxes of solar and infrared radiation are parameterized with the formulas of Wyrtki (1965). The temperature anomaly in the ocean forecast produced by inaccuracies in the meteorological parameters diffuses rapidly downward from the surface to within a few meters of the mixed layer base. Its downward diffusion is much slower below this level and this tends to produce a realtively large vertical gradient in temperature anomaly near the base of the mixed layer which may have important implications for acoustic modeling. Both the depth of the mixed layer and the magnitude of the mixed layer temperature anomaly are found to be nonlinear functions of the inaccuracies in the potential temperature, humidity, and wind speed of the atmospheric mixed layer. Estimates of the time evolution of the inaccuracies in the air temperature, humidity, and wind speed during an actual operational forecast situation are made.