While the eyes of the world have been fastened on the plight of American hostages in Tehran and on the fanatical city mobs that cheer each new proclamation by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran has been slowly fraying at the edges. No facet of the conflict in Iran is likely to affect the post-crisis political environment more fundamentally than unrest and militancy among that state's important ethnic minorities. The changing political equation is a very simple one: The dominant Persian majority is rapidly losing its ability to control events along Iran's periphery, which is inhabited primarily by non-Persians. Ethnic minorities have seized the opportunities resulting from chaos at the center to advance a variety of local demands. In its present state of disarray, the Iranian army--or at least those soldiers and units loyal to Ayatollah Khomeini, for it should be remembered that Iran's army is a multiethnic one-will probably not be able to contain local rebellions for very long, and there is no suggestion that this situation will improve in the future. (Author)
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