Hypothesis Generation in an Automobile Malfunction Inference Task

摘要

Expert and novice subjects generated hypotheses in an automobile trouble-shooting inference task. Data collected included subjects' verbal protocols during the inference tasks and subjects' estimates of the probabilities of their generated sets of hypotheses. Analyses indicated that both expert and novice subjects had difficulty generating complete sets of hypotheses and were overconfident in their subjective estimates of the probabilities of generated hypotheses. (Author)