Some Fundamental Properties of Governmental Expenditure Patterns--Theory and Evidence Based on Military Expenditures

摘要

This paper proposes the thesis that there is some common element which links all military expenditures. That element is the growth curve--the idea that government expenditures proceed in a logical, well-ordered pattern, building on what has happened in the past and predetermining what will happen in the future. Considered rationally, there is simply not other way to do things when large amounts of money and effort are expended. And yet, for reasons which are more based on the academic mystique than logic, this important, underlying factor which determines the way in which money is spent is seldom exploited. The result is poor forecasts, and the solution to the problem is simple. The research in this paper argues that the growth process is the driving force behind both individual weapon systems costs and the expenditure of monies in entire weapon cost categories. This research has also shown that a knowledge of the growth curve will allow useful forecasting in the presence of data so sparse that time series techniques may not be able to function. In sum, the research cited in this paper would seem to indicate that, given the proper methods of normalizing the data and calculating the curve form, the growth curve could serve as the major tool in forecasting this and other countries' military expenditures. (Author)