Integrated Forecasting Techniques for Secondary Item Classes. Part I. Active Items

摘要

This report is one of the final in a series on forecasting methods and forecast performance for Army item demands in the wholesale supply system. An extended data base of 48 quarters is used and both old and new algorithms are evaluated. A more intensive analysis is made than in previous studies. Forecast algorithms are used on various item activity classes with the intent of detecting patterns which could indicate where certain algorithms work best. It was hoped that ultimately a synthesis of procedures for forecasting by item classes and for interfacing across classes could be developed. However, the evaluation results as described in this report present no clear cut improvement to the current method for active items. In Part II, a new forecast procedure is recommended for inactive items. (Author)