Future International Politics and National Interests of the Future

摘要

This memorandum charts the broad tendencies of change in the nature of the state (the world's basic political unit) and in the international system, so as to speculate on the types of objectives, or national interests, which the governments of states are likely to pursue in the future. The author analyzes the characteristics of the state and the international system, then presents a brief overview of their evolution to the present time. From this framework he indicates trends which the state will take in the future and the kinds of objectives which states will pursue. He concludes that the logic of the trends in the international system is for more cooperation and less physical conflict, although states (including the superpowers) will continue to maintain large armed forces and occasionally use them. (Author)