Methodology for Real Time Forecasts of the Sustainability of Selected Major Items

摘要

No automated methodology currently exists which is capable of forecasting the wartime and peacetime consumption of spares and repair parts (Class IX supplies) by major item/weapon system in real time. This void makes it impossible to perform a major item sustainability study quickly enough for the results to be useful during crisis management. The study examines commodity-oriented data files and explains how these files can be converted to a major item/weapon system-oriented applications file suitable for computing consumption by major item/weapon system in real time. The applications file could also be used to (1) update Class IX peacetime failure factors to bring them into alignment with actual demand history, (2) compute Authorized Stockage Lists and Prescribed Load Lists based either on peacetime or wartime, (3) document Class IX budget requirements by major item/weapon system, and (4) forecast weights and cubes for movement of Class IX supplies. (Author)