Local Forecasting through Extrapolation of GOES Imagery Patterns

摘要

An attractive approach to short-range forecasting is to determine cloud motion from a sequence of satellite images and extrapolate the patterns and associated weather into the future. Objective motion vector techniques are available and the forecast procedure can be accomplished by computer. This approach is being evaluated at AFGL and this report presents results of testing motion vector techniques. Tracking and covariance techniques were compared along with winds aloft and persistence (no motion) as controls. A covariance technique had top score, but only slightly better than persistence. Complicating factors and implications to forecasting are discussed. (Author)