National Waterways Study. Traffic Forecasting Methodology

摘要

A unique, two-stage forecasting procedure was developed for the National Waterways Study waterbourne traffic analysis. The first stage examined the unconstrained (by modal or institutional factors) demands for future waterbourne transportation in the United States by forecasting the regional economic growth for those industries oriented toward waterway movement of goods. This report presents the results of the first stage analysis. The second stage of the forecasting procedure involved development of alternative scenarios about the growth of waterbourne traffic that included economic, energy, environmental, transportation, and public policy considerations. Four alternative futures were considered in the second-stage scenario analysis, in addition to three sensitivity analyses. The complete waterbourne traffic projections by scenario are contained in Appendix A to the NWS report, 'Evaluation of the Present Navigation System.' (Author)