A Simulation Model Depicting Fleet Expansion Effects on the Fire Control Technicians Training Pipeline

摘要

This thesis is a study of the training pipelines for the Navy's fire control technician ratings during projected fleet expansion to 600-plus ships by 1990. Yearly manning requirements for the FTM, FTG, and FTG(SS) ratings were identified. FTG and FTM transition flow matrices based upon 1983 POM retention goals were formed to derive rating end strengths. Rand Model forecasts for mental categories I, II, and IIIA annual accessions were used with predicted end strengths to project manpower supplies. Comparison of supply and demand projections indicated future manning shortfalls in the FT ratings. A FORTRAN-based computer language, designated SLAM, was used to construct a simulation model of the training pipelines. The model was employed to examine the impact of manpower procurement policy modifications upon Service school's queue durations and stay times. An alternative manning policy was developed to overcome the forecasted manpower deficits without disrupting the schooling time requirements. (Author)