Methods of Estimating Strategic Intentions

摘要

The estimation of strategic intentions is an important and evolving part of the intelligence process. The research program described in this report was undertaken to catalogue a number of quantitative and behavioral methods of analysis used in support of various phases of the estimation process. Thus, this research builds on earlier work performed by MATHTECH in which the intention estimation process was defined and various supporting methods identified. Specific tasks undertaken in this research project are; A description of the estimation process and of related problems including the outline of a conceptual representation of the process against which specific methods may be evaluated; A description of analytical aids useful in the intention estimation process including judgmental methods as well as analytical aids using techniques of extrapolation, structural, and causal analysis; A comparison of analytical aids in the context of the conceptual estimation process; The evaluation of specific analytical aids; and Development of a catalogue of 18 analytical aids matched by methodology to steps in the conceptual estimation process.