Tutorial on the Determination of Single-Weapon-System-Type Kill Rates for Use in Lanchester-Type Combat Models

摘要

This report is a tutorial on basic analytically-modelling methodology for the determination of single-weapon-system-type kill rates (i.e. so-called Lanchester attrition-rate coefficients) for use in operational Lanchester-type combat models. The purpose of the tutorial is to facilitate the intelligent use and adaptation of such Lanchester-type combat models to defense-planning problems. It emphasizes those aspects of the Lanchester theory of combat that have been useful for developing operational combat models. It focuses on how the combat-attrition process is conceptualized and on the delineation of the assumptions involved with using each particular attrition-rate-coefficient expression (i.e. model of a single-weapon-system-type kill rate). Enrichments in both the target-acquisition process and also the line-of-sight process are discussed in detail. Those aspects and methodologies that appear to be important for future enrichments (e.g. detailed modelling of command and control) are emphasized. Both homogeneous-force combat and also heterogeneous-force combat are considered, as well as attrition-rate coefficients for different weapon-system types. (Author)