A Two Step Method to Treat Variable Winds in Fallout Smearing Codes

摘要

A method was developed to treat non-constant winds in fallout smearing codes. The method consists of two steps: (1) location of the curved hotline (2) determination of the off-hotline activity. To locate the curved hotline, the method begins with an initial cloud of 20 discretely-sized pancake clouds, located at altitudes determined by weapon yield. Next, the particles are tracked through a 300 layer atmosphere, translating with different winds in each layer. The connection of the 20 particles' impact points is the fallout hotline. The hotline location was found to be independent of the assumed particle size distribution in the stabilized cloud. The off-hotline activity distribution is represented as a two-dimensional gaussian function, centered on the curved hotline. Hotline locator model results were compared to numerical calculations of hypothetical 100 kt burst and to the actual hotline produced by the Castle-Bravo 15 Mt nuclear test. (Author)