Mobilization Analysis and Industrial Policy: Dilemmas and Tradeoffs.

摘要

The first tradeofff I want to call your attention to is that between the economy's efficient performance in peacetime and its efficient performance in crisis mobilization. Second, and indirectly related to the first. is the tradeoff between the government's efficient performance in peacetime and in wartime or in crisis mobilization. The third point concerns a conjecture about the relationship between our increased ability to deter a large, protracted conventional conflict as a result of an improved mobilization base, and, paradoxically, the Soviet Union's possibly increased ability to impose economic costs upon us as a result of the same U.S. mobilization base. My final point is the suggestion that it may be useful to analyze tradeoffs that exist among three factors: first, strategic warning and national command capabilities; second, WRM stocks (War Reserve Materiel); and third; industrial mobilization capabilities. The second and third factors are familiar enough, but they are not generally linked with the first.