Analysis of the Feasibility of Using Design Stability as a Decision Parameter for Making Logistics Supportability Decisions.

摘要

This research investigated the criteria and analysis techniques which are currently being used in the Air Force to evaluate design stability as it relates to decisions concerning the establishment of an organic logistics support capability versus the use of ICS. The analysis was conducted in two parts: a time series analysis of engineering change proposals (ECPs) which impacted logistics elements, and a series of interviews designed to assess the adequacy of available techniques for determining the point at which design stability is achieved. Results of the ECP trend analysis indicate that while time series analysis can be used to define a model for a given set of historical data, the models for two very similar systems, the F-15 and F-16 fire control and flight control avionics, are entirely different. Thus, one cannot use a model developed with historical data from one program to predict the ECP trend for a new program. Results of the interviews indicate there is no consensus as to how to define design stability. Recommendations include: another study be performed to replicate the results of this effort, and revision of AFR 800-21 be considered to reflect these results. (Author)