Approaches to Automatic Strategy Analysis and Synthesis.

摘要

The efforts of the Group for Computer Studies of Strategies centered on five long-term projects: (a) The Generalized Production Rules System (GPRS) is a program which can support decision-making for a variety of expert systems in need of estimates of hidden variables. Hidden variables are such that their values can be identified only at certain times, either intermittently or periodically. In contrast, open variables are readily measureable at any time. The estimation is based on stochastic, causal relations between hidden and open variables. (b) The Quasi-Optimizer System (QO) is a program which observes and measures adversaries' behavior in confrontations, infers their strategies, and constructs a descriptive theory, i.e., a model, of each. It then identifies the components of the strategies, evaluates their effectiveness and combines the most satisfactory ones into a normative theory which is an optimum strategy in the statistical sense. (c) The advice Taker/Inquirer (AT/I) is a program which can be taught strategies by a human Advisor. The Advisor provides principles and high-level examples of actions in different situations. The system applies the strategy to test, verify and optimize the strategy. (d) The Interactive Environment for Planning and Decision Making uses two graphics screens, one displaying features of the current world, the other those of an extrapolated world with the estimated consequences of tentative decisions. (e) The Integrated System of Strategy Analysis and Synthesis for Air Traffic Control will be useful in teaching and evaluating Air Traffic Control Trainees. (Author)