Forecasting and Time Series Model Types of 111 Economic Time Series

摘要

It is possible to put an end to the argument of what forecasting methods are better and under what circumstances. Makridakis has organized a forecasting competition to which various forecasting experts would contribute forecasts of 111 economic and business time series which he has collected. This paper reports the results of our analysis of these series. An appendix describes the theory of univariate time series modeling and forecasting used in this study. The main text summarizes the diverse models which are encompassed by our approach, and which arise in the study of the 111 time series being forecasted. (Author)