Development of a System Dynamics Model to Evaluate the Post-Attack Recovery Capability of the Soviet Union. Volume 1. Description and Simulations

摘要

A highly-robust, dynamic simulation model of the Soviet economy has been constructured to evaluate the likely economic response after various nuclear attacks or other severe disruptions, under various policies and assumptions. The model consists of a large system of nonlinear, recursive, time difference equations. The solution interval of the model is adjustable, with a maximum value of three weeks. The model represents the economy in twelve sectors. Each sector contains a detailed representation of production, distribution, supply constraints, finance, employment, pricing, and wages. Also included are a full input-output representation of the interconnections among the sectors, and the psychological responses of government planners, consumers, and the labor force. The model's equations are formulated to remain consistent and realistic for all values of the variables, including the most extreme conditions. Therefore, the model can realistically simulate any degree or time sequence of nuclear attacks, pre-attack surges, mobilization, or policy shifts. Simulation experiments with the model suggest that the Soviet economy is highly vulnerable to nuclear attack.