Analysis of Demand Forecasting Emphasizing Inventory Effectiveness

摘要

An analysis is made of the Navy's demand forecasting process and its impact on inventory system effectiveness. The current Navy Uniform Inventory Control Point (UICP) forecasting model is compared with an alternative computer-oriented technique using UICP data. The comparison highlights the presence of highly erratic patterns in the UICP demand data base. Next, a simulation model is exercised to suggest how the UICP demand reporting method might contribute to the variance of recorded demand. The thesis concludes with another simulation indicating the relation of demand forecasting accuracy on each component of total inventory cost. This simulation suggests that, while holding and ordering costs remain relatively, insensitive to fluctuations in forecast accuracy, the stockout cost element displays a hypersensitive reaction. (Author)