United States Security Policy Implications of a Post-Fidel Cuba.

摘要

U.S. policy towards Cuba has long lost its creative initiative and effectiveness. As much a tribute to the political cunning of Fidel Castro as to other domestic forces, American efforts at regime removal and support to the Cuban people have all ended counterproductively. With each action, the Revolutionary government has emerged even more politically powerful and entrenched. However, recent changes on the island have for the first time opened up unique opportunities and windows to advance U.S. national security objectives towards Cuba. While some of these opportunities are fleeting, others are as inevitable as the 'biological solution' of the island's geriatric leadership. As a result of the latter, the Cuban government will almost certainly have at least one more succession or transition in the coming decade. This paper provides background on the U.S.-Cuba relationship, proposed succession and transition scenarios, and the implications of those scenarios for U.S. security policy towards Cuba.