Utility of Confidence-Building Measures in Crisis Situations: Some Case Studies

摘要

The potential role of CBM--as a means to help defuse nascent crises, to reduce the escalatory risks inherent in crisis situations should they develop, and to lessen international tensions in general--has recently become the object of considerable study and debate. The primary stimulus behind the resurgence of interest in CBM is, of course, the agreement to meet in Stockholm. Moreover, given apparent deadlocks in the START and INF arms limitation talks (among others), CBM negotiations are currently seen by some as the most viable international arms control forum. Consequently, the confidence building question has become the object of great interest no only in various international communities but also in the Western official circles. CBM are conceivably applicable in two generic scenarios: 1. routine situations where the problem is to provide the communications and protocols to help prevent or sort out unexpected developments, unintended actions, accidents, etc.--which one might characterize as Acts of God (AOGs). 2. crisis situations where it is necessary to resolve the issues giving rise to serious confrontations between nations. To illuminate the lessons cited above this paper will, accordingly, dissect historical cases using the following framework for analysis.