China Macroeconomic Model. Specification Report, User's Guide, Scenario Report, Trade Data Sources Report

摘要

The Wharton China Macroeconomic model is an 11-sector input-output flow model of China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) capable of making projections from the base year, 1983. There are three agricultural sectors, six industrial sectors, and two other sectors. The model is designed and implemented for microcomputers using the Supercalc2 spreadsheet software with a minimum of 64K of random access memory. Hence it is usable with 8-bit as well as 16-bit machines. The model generates projections of both Net Material Product (NMP) and GDP, in both current and constant (1980-price) yuan, as well as in current and constant (1980-price) dollars. The dollar variables are calculated with estimates of purchasing-power parity shadow exchange rates rather than with an official or internal exchange rate. These value-added projections are for both the whole economy and for each of the eleven sectors. Furthermore, the constant-priced variables are deflated with three different methods for comparison purposes: double-deflation (which gives the correct output total), single-deflation (which gives a meaningful growth trends for individual sectors), and output- or demand-deflation (which gives both the correct output total and meaningful growth trends for individual sectors).