Application of a Technology Index to Aircraft Turbine Engine Cost Estimating Relationships

摘要

This research attempts to develop a technological index based on selected characteristics of new products. The methodology employed to develop the index was adopted from the technological forecasting community, where it is accepted as a valid technique for quantifying technological change. Several indices were developed to measure the level of technology incorporated into the design and development of aircraft turbine engines. Each index was based on a different assumption about the expected time path of technological growth. The data set was restricted to the same engines used by Rand to develop a set of Cost Estimating Realtionships(CERs) for estimating the development cost to Model Qualification Tests, production cost, and the total development cost of jet engines. Selected indices were then introduced into the Rand CERs to evaluate their impact as cost drivers and their relationship to the other variables in the equations. The application resulted in the technology indices being significant and valid cost drivers.