M55 Rocket Disposal Program Study. M55-CD-10. Analysis of Risks Associated with Operation of the M55 Rocket Demilitarization Plant at Pine Bluff Arsenal (Converted BZ Demilitarization Plant)

摘要

Risks associated with the operation of the Pine Bluff rocket demilitarization plant were analyzed in terms of possible events that would lead to the release of either GB or VX agent to the atmosphere. These events were quantified by the amount of agent released and the probability of occurrence. Identification of release events was accomplished by conducting a hazard and operability study of the plant design plans; this procedure is particularly well-suited for process-type operations. Process upsets, equipment failure, human error or natural events were all considered as initiating or contributing factors to the release events. Fault tree analysis was used to quantify the probabilities of release events, and release amounts were calculated using various appropriate models. Findings showed the largest single potential release to be the loss of contents from an agent storage tank caused by a severe earthquake. For this potential incident, the release amount was 4700 lbs of agent, and the probability of occurrence was .0000025 per year. In general, the analysis showed that while the onsite M55 plans may experience component and procedural failures like other chemical process facilities, they should have a superior safety record because of the systematic incorporation of redundant, risk mitigating measures. Keywords: Arkansas; M-55 rockets; Demilitarization; Demilitarization plants; VX agent; GB agent; Risk analysis.