How the Timing of Updates on the Location of Strategic Relocatable Targets Changes the Probability of Detection

摘要

This project's primary goal was to determine the relationship between the timing of the last intelligence update with the probability of detecting a strategic relocatable target (SRT). A computer simulation of a bomber attacking an SRT was built to develop the relationship. Many characteristics of a bomber aircraft and an SRT were investigated and included in the model to ensure a reasonable representation of the actual system. After integrating the significant factors into a comprehensive model, experimental runs were made. Notional numbers were used throughout the project. After completing the verification and validation stages, experimental data was run through the model to demonstrate the format of the output and usefulness of the model. From the example, inferences were made about the true relationship of the update timing and detection probabilities. Experimental results indicate that a significant decrease in detection probabilities occurred when the last update on the target's location is received by the attacking aircrew at a point where the time remaining until entering the search area is less than half the dwell time of the SRT. Therefore, this model not only provides the detection probability a decision maker can expect at each update time but also the point where significant changes in the probability of detection occurs. (Author)