Cost of Leaving Model for Forecasting Civilian Engineers' Retention Behavior under Alternative Retirement Systems

摘要

Civilians comprise more than one-third of total Navy manpower and two-thirds of the support establishment. Research on the size and distribution of the civilian work force has been hampered by the lack of a data base and models to project force structure under alternative personnel policies. There is a need to develop long-term civilian work force modeling capability supported by a structured data base. The objective of this effort was to develop an econometric model, using alternative retirement systems, to forecast the retention behavior of the Navy civilian engineers under alternative retirement and compensation systems. Five alternative retirement systems were analyzed using the model. Differences in retention by length of service, age, and grade level of the civilian employees were calculated. This allows for comparisons of retirement plans for specific subgroups of the population as well as overall.