Methodology for Projecting U.S.-Flag Commercial Tanker Capacity

摘要

This research contribution develops a methodology for projecting the size of the U.S.-flag tanker fleet over the next 25 years. Such projections are needed to assess whether the Ready Reserve Force can be an economical and effective program for maintaining adequate tanker tonnage to support both military operations and essential economic activity. Domestic crude oil and refined product flows are modeled, and a scheme is developed to allocate the flows between tankers, barges, and pipelines. Relationships are specified to convert the volumes of oil allocated to tankers into tanker tonnage requirements and into requirements for numbers of tankers of various sizes. Keywords: Algorithms; Barges; Capacity; Cargo handling; Cargo ships; Commercial ships; Cost effectiveness; Fuel; Mathematical analysis; Military force levels; Oil; Petroleum; Pipelines; RRF (Ready Reserve Force); Sealift; SEF (Sealift Enhancement Features); Size; Tankers. (Author)