Image Theory: Policies, Goals, Strategies and Tactics in Decision Making

摘要

A descriptive theory of decision making is proposed in which Decision Makers represent information as images. One image consists of principles that recommend pursuit of specific goals. A second image represents the ideal state of events if these goals were to be attained. A third image consists of the plans that have been adopted to pursue those goals. A fourth image represents the anticipated state of events if the plans on the third image are implemented. Decisions consist of (1) adopting or rejecting potential candidates to be new principles, goals, or plans, and (2) determining whether progress toward goals is being made. i.e., whether the ideal future and the anticipated results of plan implementation correspond. Decisions are made using either (1) nonanalytic strategies that rely solely upon the compatibility between candidates and existing principles, goals and plans, or the compatibility between the images of the ideal and the anticipated states of events, or (2) analytic strategies that rely upon both compatibility and the gains and losses offered by a goal or plan.