Development of a Graphics Based Two-Attribute Utility Assessment Program with Application to Mission Planning

摘要

Utility theory provides the means for characterizing a decision maker's preferences over the range of some attribute. The ideas behind utility theory have been extended to decision making problems in which more than one attribute is used to characterize possible alternatives, and this extension is termed multi-attribute utility theory. A multi-attribute utility assessment computer program is developed which can handle consequences composed of two attributes. It handles four particular cases of utility independence, utility independence in one direction, and no independence properties. A two-attribute consequence space was chosen particularly for the ability to represent the multi-attribute utility function graphically in three dimensions, from one of eight possible viewpoints. The utilities of two Air Force mission planners were assessed to determine the feasibility of using probability of arrival and probability of target destruction as factors for mission success. Based on the results, it appears as though multiattribute utility theory would be a definite help to Air Force mission planning. (Theses)