Socioeconomic Considerations in Dam Safety Risk Analysis

摘要

The analytical review and summary critique of literature related to risk analysis was conducted for the purpose of highlighting those ideas, concepts and methods that have a bearing on conventional approaches to evaluating uncertainties of natural and technological hazards and the risks imposed by alternative solutions. The critique of the philosophical and analytical bases of risk analysis as further directed toward the specific problem of dam safety risk analysis. Dam safety is unique in that it represents an extreme situation characteristic of low probability/high consequence event. Conventional rules of economic analysis are difficult to extrapolate and extend to such events. This analytical review was conducted as part of the Corps' Risk Analysis Research Program, managed by the Institute for Water Resources, of which the dam safety risk analysis research effort is but one part of the broader range of applications of risk analysis to Corps problems. (Author)