Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation: Proposal for Department of Defense Support to the Whole of Government Approach In Afghanistan.

摘要

On October 06, 2008, the Department of Defense (DoD) stood up U.S. Forces-Afghanistan (USF-A) under U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM). In cooperation with the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), USF-A has trained and supported the Afghan National Army (ANA) to protect and support the Afghan National Police (ANP) as it provides security to the people of Afghanistan. Authorities were established for a cooperative effort between the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Chief of Mission (COM) in Afghanistan and the Commander, USF-A. An integrated Civil-Military Campaign Plan (ICMCP) was signed on August 10, 2009, and revised in 2011. The U.S. Whole-of-Government approach effort in Afghanistan was defined in the integrated plan, based on close collaboration with the ISAF and the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). The plan's most important component was a strong and continuing partnership with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) to build stability. The ability to measure and forecast the reaction of elders serving within the GIRoA is essential to decision makers so they can assess the effectiveness of stabilization efforts. Agent-based modeling and simulation (A-B M&S) is a means to project reception by the Afghan people of stabilization initiatives by the GIRoA. This thesis proposes that DoD provide an A-B M&S capability in support of strategic and operational decision makers of the U.S. Whole-of-Government approach to stabilization in Afghanistan. The thesis will explain A-B M&S in context through a case study of the Malayan insurgency, and justify why the DoD should use and lead the capability. A detailed explanation will be provided as to how the DoD could use A-B M&S in Afghanistan for security decisions. A transition strategy will be offered on how the capability should be passed from DoD to the DOS by late 2014. Recommendations and conclusions complete the thesis.