Validation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's Solar Flare Forecasting Look-Up Tables and Forecaster Issued Probabilities (Preprint).

摘要

This paper provides an assessment of the operational solar flare look-up table currently in use at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) during solar cycle 23 (May 1996 December 2008). To assess the value of human interaction, a validation of subjective flare probability forecasts was conducted and compared to the results obtained from the look-up tables. Probabilistic flare forecasts were evaluated using the Brier Skill Score, then discretized and entered into contingency tables from which a variety of verification measures were calculated. These scores and statistics will be used as the basis for future evaluation of models to be presented to the operational community.