Converting Sorties Killed to Aircraft Killed in Combat Models that Use Attrition Equations

摘要

Some combat simulation models that use attrition equations employ a two-stage procedure to compute attrition to aircraft: first, a number of sorties killed is computed and then it is converted to a number of aircraft killed. This paper uses probability theory to derive several different formulas that could be used to convert sorties killed to aircraft killed in the case where sortie rates are greater than 1. (If sortie rates do not exceed 1, it is reasonable to let aircraft killed equal sorties killed.) Several possible formulas for the expected number of successful sorties flown also are derived. A number of inequality relationships among these formulas are proved. The commonly used formula: aircraft killed = sorties killed divided by sortie rate, is found to produce the smallest results of all the formulas derived. One of the alternative formulas has been implemented in the NAVMOD naval combat model.