Profiling Market Potential for Navy Recruiting at the Local Geographical Level

摘要

This thesis investigates several alternative methods for estimating intentions to join the United States Navy. The Youth Attitude Tracking Study (YATS) is used to obtain the intentions of young male respondents to join the military, and specifically the Navy. Intention propensity indexes are calculated for Navy recruiting areas and districts. The main conclusions of the study are: a. Intention propensity can be forecasted at the Navy recruiting district level; b. A propensity index could be used to allocate the number of recruiters and recruiter goals at the Navy recruiting area and district level; c. Probit and logit regression models should be tested by predicting enlistment intentions for 1985-1987, then comparing the prediction against observed out-of-sample years. Keywords: Recruiting; Enlistment; Intention; Estimates of enlistment market potential; Theses. (sdw)