Interactive PC-Based Procedure for Reliability Assessment Incorporating Expert Opinion and Survival Data.

摘要

In this article we outline principles and discuss the development of an interactive procedure for reliability assessment of items whose life lengths are described by the Weibull distribution. The procedure has been implemented on an IBM-PC with a math coprocessor and graphical capabilities; the development focuses on user-friendliness. I confine attention to the Weibull distribution because of its popularity with biostatisticians and engineers but extension to other distributions is straight-forward. Noteworthy features of our approach include the following: (1) The use of informed judgment based on biological theories or engineering principles (referred to as expert opinion). (2) The use of failure and/or survival data on identical items. (3) An interactive and time-sequential merging of these data on a personal computer (PC). This work signals a possible trend toward the development of new military standards for reliability. It also serves as a module for the newly evolving concept of computer-aided reliability and maintainability, also known as RAM/CAD. (KAR) P. 2.