Strategic Planning Framework for Predicting and Evaluating Soviet Interests in Arms Control. Volume 2: The Strategic Arms Reduction Talks, 1981-1983.

摘要

This report takes the framework developed in Volume I regarding levels of Soviet interest in arms control, the four factors conditioning that level of interest, and applies them to a specific case study: the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) between 1982 and 1983. It concludes that none of the four variables necessary for Soviet interest in signing an agreement were present, and therefore provides a conceptual understanding for Soviet policy toward strategic arms control in the era immediately preceding the emergence of SDI and strategic defenses as a major factor in Soviet calculations. (sdw)