Methodology to Model and Understand the Complexities of Social, Economic,and Governance Interactions for Regional Assessment in Kenya.

摘要

This research explores the use of complex systems techniques to understand, model, and quantify how local events in the areas of security, governance, and economic development can have far-reaching regional impacts in developing countries. Several systems diagramming and system dynamics techniques were explored to conduct a thorough system analysis and ultimately determine what inputs cause the largest increase in key state variables representing a country's capacity and status. The resulting model will be used by AFRICOM analysts to determine the effect of local events across a wide range of variables in order to determine where the largest impact can be made to the improvement of a country's economic, social, and security status, and thereby prioritize investment and other activities in the area of interest.