Graphical Analysis of the Sensitivities of ATCAL (Attrition Calibration) in the FORCEM (Force Evaluation Model) Model.

摘要

Verification and validation of computer simulations of large complex systems such as theater level combat operations is difficult at best. In practice, this is not a single event, but continues to occur throughout the life of the models involved. While the basic intent is to insure that the model is true to its design and that the design reasonably approximates reality, the effort also yields insight into model sensitivity and possible utility of information generated by the model. The purpose of this project is to analyze an attrition process in the context of its theater model. This thesis will examine sensitivity with respect to certain variables, to verify that the process, in this context, provides an intuitively appealing output, and to look for items which may be used as simple performance predictors in other aspects of the model. The process under investigation is the Attrition Calibration (ATCAL) process, used by the Army Concepts Analysis Agency (CAA) as the attrition mechanism in its theater-level models, Concepts Evaluation Model (CEM) and Force Evaluation Model (FORCEM). (KR)