To Predict or Not Predict: Crossroads for Tactical Intelligence.

摘要

This monograph discusses the nature of tactical intelligence prediction in military operations. Such prediction is extremely complex and involves a broad range of factors from traditional military ones such as terrain and doctrine to more non-traditional ones of human behavior and perceptual mechanisms. While the traditional factors are important, the non-traditional ones are no less so and often hinder accurate prediction. The monograph first examines the U.S. Army's doctrinal requirement for tactical intelligence prediction, both past and present. Next, it discusses and clarifies the concepts of 'capabilities,' 'enemy intent,' and 'prediction.' Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield is then examined as a vehicle for intelligence prediction. The monograph then moves on to describe the behavioral aspects of prediction in terms of individual and organizational factors which inhibit objective analysis. Historical examples are provided. Keywords: Military intelligence; Tactical intelligence; Intelligence analysis; Decision making; Impact prediction. (cp)